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Long-Range Forecasts Long-Range Forecasting products issued by NEACC

SL-AV model description

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 – Date of implementation of the current subseasonal (SSF) and seasonal (SF) forecast system: September 2022
 
– Whether the system is a coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast system: no
 
– Whether the system is a two tier forecast system: yes
 
– Atmospheric model resolution: 0.9x0.72 degree lon-lat, 96 vertical levels
 
– Ocean model and its resolution (if applicable): n/a
 
– Source of atmospheric initial conditions: operational HMCR  3D-Var analysis for upper-air fields, OI analysis for screen-level temperature and humidity;  simplified extended Kalman filter for soil moisture
 
– Source of ocean initial conditions: n/a
 
– If a two tier system is used, the source of SST predictions: persistent SST and sea-ice anomalies
 
– Hindcast period: 1991-2015
 
– Ensemble size for the hindcasts: 11 members for each year (total number of hindcasts 275)
 
– Method of configuring the hindcast ensemble: breeding; SPP in the model is partially activated
 
– Ensemble size for the forecast: 41
 
– Method of configuring the forecast ensemble: breeding (the same procedure as for hindcast ensemble, only the number of members differs); SPP in the model is partially activated, SPPT is not activated
 
– Length of forecasts: 46 days for SSF, 135 days for SF 
 
– Data format: GRIB2
 
– The latest day of the week that subseasonal forecast anomalies  for the next weeks/months become
available: Friday
 
– Method of construction of the forecast anomalies: anomaly=forecast-(hindcast climate)
 
– URL where forecast is available: http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru/forecast/221
 
- Points of contact: Mikhail Tolstykh email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ; Radomir Zaripov email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .