Forecast model description
– Date of implementation of the current subseasonal (SSF) and seasonal (SF) forecast system: September 2022
– Whether the system is a coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast system: no
– Whether the system is a two tier forecast system: yes
– Atmospheric model resolution: 0.9x0.72 degree lon-lat, 96 vertical levels
– Ocean model and its resolution (if applicable): n/a
– Source of atmospheric initial conditions: operational HMCR 3D-Var analysis for upper-air fields, OI analysis for screen-level temperature and humidity; simplified extended Kalman filter for soil moisture
– Source of ocean initial conditions: n/a
– If a two tier system is used, the source of SST predictions: persistent SST and sea-ice anomalies
– Hindcast period: 1991-2015
– Ensemble size for the hindcasts: 11 members for each year (total number of hindcasts 275)
– Method of configuring the hindcast ensemble: breeding; SPP in the model is partially activated
– Ensemble size for the forecast: 41
– Method of configuring the forecast ensemble: breeding (the same procedure as for hindcast ensemble, only the number of members differs); SPP in the model is partially activated, SPPT is not activated
– Length of forecasts: 46 days for SSF, 135 days for SF
– Data format: GRIB2
– The latest day of the week that subseasonal forecast anomalies for the next weeks/months become
available: Friday
– Method of construction of the forecast anomalies: anomaly=forecast-(hindcast climate)
– URL where forecast is available: http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru/forecast/221
- Points of contact: Mikhail Tolstykh email:
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; Radomir Zaripov email:
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.
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