Skill scores of seasonal forecasts

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Long-Range Forecasts

Long-Range Forecasting products issued by NEACC

Skill scores of seasonal forecast

Date

Region

Parameter

Parameter: H500
Region: GLOBUS (90S - 90N; 0 - 360)
Date: 2011-11-01

Model	Verifications						Maps
Model	ROC_A	ROC_N	ROC_B	RO	ACC	RMSE	Maps
November 2011
PLAV	0.76	0.62	0.73	0.39	0.63	32.48
MGO	0.62	0.54	0.63	0.16	0.54	34.26
PLAV+MGO	0.75	0.61	0.73	0.32	0.64	31.38
December 2011
PLAV	0.63	0.51	0.57	0.2	0.29	45.67
MGO	0.68	0.65	0.66	0.16	0.28	44.61
PLAV+MGO	0.67	0.63	0.65	0.19	0.34	43.68
January 2012
PLAV	0.65	0.56	0.49	0.14	0.21	44.98
MGO	0.66	0.64	0.6	0.18	-0.04	47.43
PLAV+MGO	0.68	0.65	0.57	0.17	0.13	45.33
Season
PLAV	0.68	0.6	0.64	0.21	0.43	26.08
MGO	0.69	0.63	0.72	0.2	0.3	26.63
PLAV+MGO	0.7	0.64	0.72	0.3	0.42	24.91

Skill scores:
ROC_A - ROC Score Above Normal
ROC_N - ROC Score Near Normal
ROC_B - ROC Score Below Normal
RO - sign consistency coefficient
ACC - anomaly correlation coefficient
RMSE - root mean square error

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