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Forecast Verifications

Agenda of NEACOF-9


November 10, 2015
9.00 – 10.00 Registration of participants
10.00 – 10.25 Greetings:
I.A. Shumakov – Deputy head of Roshydromet
R.M. Vilfand - Director of the "Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia"
V.M. Khan - Executive Director of NEACC
10.25 – 10.30 Group photo
Session 1. Monitoring and forecasting technology of short-period variations in climate
Chair: R.M. Vilfand Co-Chair: T.G. Chernikova
10.30 – 10.50 The development of a technology of long-range forecasting in the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (pdf)
R.M. Vilfand, D.B. Kiktev, V.M. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia)
10.50 – 11.30 Multiscale version of the global atmospheric model SL-AV (pdf)
M.A. Tolstyh (INM RAS, Russian Hydrometeorological Center)
11.30 – 12.00 Coffee break
12.00 – 12.45

A brief overview of the current state of knowledge of hydrometeorological processes in the Arctic (pdf)
V.V. Ivanov (AARI, Hydrometcenter of Russia)

12.45 – 13.30

Long-range Forecast Complex in Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (pdf)
V.M. Mirvis (MGO)

13.30– 14.30 Lunch
14.30 – 15.00

Features of the observed climate changes in Northern Eurasia according to regular monitoring and their possible factors (pdf)
M. Yu. Bardin (IGCE)

15.00 – 15.30

The observed regional climate change adaptation and evaluation of the potential of winter crops (pdf)
V.N. Pavlova (RIAM)

15.30– 16.00 Coffee break
Session 2. Features of long-term forecasting based on empirical and hydrodynamical methods
Chair: M.Yu.Bardin Co-Chair: D.Longinova
16.00 – 17.20 Brief reports with forecast information for the coming winter period of 2015-2016:
Azerbaijan - 10 min: Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorlogical Services (pdf); Seasonal forecast in Azerbaijan (pdf)
Armenia - 10 min
Belarus -10 min
Moldova -10 min: Extreme weather events in the territory of the Republic of Moldova (pdf).
Forecast for the 2015/2016 winter season in Moldova (pdf).
Kazakhstan -10 min: Seasonal weather forecast for for the 2015/2016 winter on the territory of Kazakhstan (pdf).
Kyrgyzstan -10 min
Tajikistan -10 min
Uzbekistan -10 min
17.45 - 20.30 Reception

VENUE of NEACOF-9: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia ORGANIZING COMMITTEE of NEACOF-9: R.M. Vilfand, D.B. Kiktev, M.Y. Kovtunenko, E.N. Kruglov, I.A. Kulikova, N. Kuznetsova, V.A. Tishchenko, T. Fedunova, N.A.Fetisova, V.M. Khan

November 11, 2015 г.
10.00 – 10.30

A practical example of the development of the weather forecast for the upcoming winter season using the synoptical circulation method (pdf)
V.Y. Tsepelev (Department of Roshydromet for the Northwest Federal District)
(practical exercise)

10.30 – 11.00 A practical example of issue of the forecast for the coming winter using sinoptical-statistical
methods used in the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia
G.I. Chekmasova, V.I. Zakharenkova (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia)
(practical exercise)
Group work - identification of analogues of Europe and Asia
Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova
Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan
11.00 – 12.00 Probabilistic Interpretation of the empirical forecasts
(practical lesson)
Group work - Probabilistic Interpretation of analogues forecasts for Northe Eurasia:
Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova
Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan
12.00 – 12.30 Coffee break
12.30 – 13.30 Brief reports on the updated probabilistic forecasts for the European and Asian regions of the CIS:
Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova
Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan
13.30 – 14.30 Lunch
Session 3. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their prediction
Chair: V.A.Tischenko
Co-Chair: D.Badullaeva
14.30 – 15.00 Review of hydrodynamic seasonal ensemble forecasts produced by various forecasting centers
I.Kulikova, V. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia)
15.00 – 15.30 Skill scores of retrospective forecasts, and operational seasonal forecast for SL-AV model (pdf)
V.A. Tishchenko (Russian Hydrometeorological Center)
15.30 – 16.00 Large scale circulation factors forming predictive signals in Northern Eurasia. Work with circulating indexes using web page of NEACC.
Work with circulating indexes using web page of NEACC.
E.N. Kruglova, I.A. Kulikova (Russian Hydrometeorological Center)
(practical lesson).
Work in groups. Identification of large-scale structures forming temperature and precipitation
conditions in the European and Asian territories of the CIS:
Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova
Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan
16.00 – 16.20 Coffee break
Session 4. Climate Services
Chair: V.M. Khan Co-Chair: T.S. Bugaeva
16.20 – 18.00 Climate Services in the Interest of Economy Sectors (pdf)
V.M. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre)
Energy sector
Climate services consumers in the Republic of Moldova (pdf).
Discussion of issues related to climate services in the CIS NHMS

20.00 – 21.30 Cultural event – Organ Concert in Catholic Cathedral (Organizing committee will provide tickets for guests from CIS countries)

November 12, 2015 г.
Session 5. The forecast weather conditions for the winter 2015-2016
Chair: V.Y. Tsepelev Co-Chair: G.G. Surenyan
10.00 – 12.00 Work in groups
Review of prognostic information and drafting the consensus forecast for the upcoming season
on the territory of the CIS
Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova
Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan
12.00 – 12.30 Coffee break
12.30 – 13.00 The formulation of the consensus forecast for the winter of 2015-2016
13.00 – 13.30 Decisions and conclusions
13.30–13.45 Closure of the NEACOF-9