THE NINTH SESSION OF THE NORTH-EURASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM FOR CIS COUNTRIES (NEACOF-9)
| November 10, 2015 | |
| 9.00 – 10.00 | Registration of participants |
| 10.00 – 10.25 | Greetings: I.A. Shumakov – Deputy head of Roshydromet R.M. Vilfand - Director of the "Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia" V.M. Khan - Executive Director of NEACC |
| 10.25 – 10.30 | Group photo |
Session 1. Monitoring and forecasting technology of short-period variations in climate Chair: R.M. Vilfand Co-Chair: T.G. Chernikova | |
| 10.30 – 10.50 | The development of a technology of long-range forecasting in the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (pdf) R.M. Vilfand, D.B. Kiktev, V.M. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia) |
| 10.50 – 11.30 | Multiscale version of the global atmospheric model SL-AV (pdf) M.A. Tolstyh (INM RAS, Russian Hydrometeorological Center) |
| 11.30 – 12.00 | Coffee break |
| 12.00 – 12.45 | A brief overview of the current state of knowledge of hydrometeorological processes in the Arctic (pdf) |
| 12.45 – 13.30 | Long-range Forecast Complex in Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (pdf) |
| 13.30– 14.30 | Lunch |
| 14.30 – 15.00 | Features of the observed climate changes in Northern Eurasia according to regular monitoring and their possible factors (pdf) |
| 15.00 – 15.30 | The observed regional climate change adaptation and evaluation of the potential of winter crops (pdf) |
| 15.30– 16.00 | Coffee break |
Session 2. Features of long-term forecasting based on empirical and hydrodynamical methods Chair: M.Yu.Bardin Co-Chair: D.Longinova | |
| 16.00 – 17.20 | Brief reports with forecast information for the coming winter period of 2015-2016: Azerbaijan - 10 min: Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorlogical Services (pdf); Seasonal forecast in Azerbaijan (pdf) Armenia - 10 min Belarus -10 min Moldova -10 min: Extreme weather events in the territory of the Republic of Moldova (pdf). Forecast for the 2015/2016 winter season in Moldova (pdf). Kazakhstan -10 min: Seasonal weather forecast for for the 2015/2016 winter on the territory of Kazakhstan (pdf). Kyrgyzstan -10 min Tajikistan -10 min Uzbekistan -10 min |
| 17.45 - 20.30 | Reception VENUE of NEACOF-9: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia ORGANIZING COMMITTEE of NEACOF-9: R.M. Vilfand, D.B. Kiktev, M.Y. Kovtunenko, E.N. Kruglov, I.A. Kulikova, N. Kuznetsova, V.A. Tishchenko, T. Fedunova, N.A.Fetisova, V.M. Khan |
| November 11, 2015 г. | |
| 10.00 – 10.30 | A practical example of the development of the weather forecast for the upcoming winter season using the synoptical circulation method (pdf) |
| 10.30 – 11.00 | A practical example of issue of the forecast for the coming winter using sinoptical-statistical methods used in the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia G.I. Chekmasova, V.I. Zakharenkova (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia) (practical exercise) Group work - identification of analogues of Europe and Asia Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan |
| 11.00 – 12.00 | Probabilistic Interpretation of the empirical forecasts (practical lesson) Group work - Probabilistic Interpretation of analogues forecasts for Northe Eurasia: Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan |
| 12.00 – 12.30 | Coffee break |
| 12.30 – 13.30 | Brief reports on the updated probabilistic forecasts for the European and Asian regions of the CIS: Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan |
| 13.30 – 14.30 | Lunch |
Session 3. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their prediction Chair: V.A.Tischenko Co-Chair: D.Badullaeva | |
| 14.30 – 15.00 | Review of hydrodynamic seasonal ensemble forecasts produced by various forecasting centers I.Kulikova, V. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia) |
| 15.00 – 15.30 | Skill scores of retrospective forecasts, and operational seasonal forecast for SL-AV model (pdf) V.A. Tishchenko (Russian Hydrometeorological Center) |
| 15.30 – 16.00 | Large scale circulation factors forming predictive signals in Northern Eurasia. Work with circulating indexes using web page of NEACC. Work with circulating indexes using web page of NEACC. E.N. Kruglova, I.A. Kulikova (Russian Hydrometeorological Center) (practical lesson). Work in groups. Identification of large-scale structures forming temperature and precipitation conditions in the European and Asian territories of the CIS: Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan |
| 16.00 – 16.20 | Coffee break |
Session 4. Climate Services Chair: V.M. Khan Co-Chair: T.S. Bugaeva | |
| 16.20 – 18.00 | Climate Services in the Interest of Economy Sectors (pdf) V.M. Khan (Hydrometeorological Centre) Agriculture Forestry Energy sector Climate services consumers in the Republic of Moldova (pdf). Discussion of issues related to climate services in the CIS NHMS |
20.00 – 21.30 Cultural event – Organ Concert in Catholic Cathedral (Organizing committee will provide tickets for guests from CIS countries) | |
| November 12, 2015 г. | |
Session 5. The forecast weather conditions for the winter 2015-2016 Chair: V.Y. Tsepelev Co-Chair: G.G. Surenyan | |
| 10.00 – 12.00 | Work in groups Review of prognostic information and drafting the consensus forecast for the upcoming season on the territory of the CIS Group 1: Armenia +Azerbaijan +Belarus + Moldova Group 2: Kazakhstan +Kyrgyzstan + Tajikistan + Uzbekistan |
| 12.00 – 12.30 | Coffee break |
| 12.30 – 13.00 | The formulation of the consensus forecast for the winter of 2015-2016 |
| 13.00 – 13.30 | Decisions and conclusions |
| 13.30–13.45 | Closure of the NEACOF-9 |
