THE FIFTH SESSION OF NORTH EURASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (NEACOF-5)
Moscow, October 29,2013 - November 1, 2013
| 29-th of OCTOBER - TUESDAY | |
| OPENING OF NEACOF-5 | |
| 9.30 – 10.00 | Registration of the forum participants |
| 10.00 – 10.30 | Welcome address on behalf of Roshydromet Welcome address by R.Vilfand (Director of Hydrometcenter of Russia) |
| First session. MECHANISMS AND PROCEDURES TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF CLIMATE SERVICES Chair: Jean-Pierre Ceron Co-chair: Jamilya Baidulloeva | |
| 10.30 – 10.50 | A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL MECHANISMS AND PROCEDURES TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF CLIMATE SERVICES (pdf) N. Berghi World Meteorological Organization |
| 10.50 – 11.10 | DEVELOPING A GFCS SERVICE FOR IMPROVING REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS BASED ON EXPERIENCES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF WMO-RA VI RCC ON CLIMATE DATA (pdf) G. Verver Focal point WMO RAVI RCC on climate data, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute |
| 11.10 – 11.30 | THE ROLE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES IN THE INCREASING OF THE EFFICIENT USE OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION(pdf) |
| 11.30 – 11.40 | Group photo |
| 11.40 – 12.00 | Coffee break |
| Second session. PROGRESS IN SEASONAL FORECASTING Chair: Stefan Rosner Co-chair: Irina Zaitsceva | |
| 12.00 – 12.25 | DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY AT NCEP CPC (pdf) H. Wang Climate Prediction Center, NOAA |
| 12.25 – 12.50 | PROGRESS IN SEASONAL PREDICTION IN MET OFFICE (pdf) A. Brookshaw Met Office Hadley Centre |
| 12.50 – 13.15 | TOKYO CLIMATE CENTRE’S ACTIVITY IN LONG-RANGE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT(pdf) S. Tanaka Tokyo Climate Center |
| 13.15 – 13.30 | Discussions |
| 13.30– 14.30 | Lunch |
| Chair: Natalia Berghi Co-chair: Christian Viel | |
| 14.30– 14.55 | SEASONAL FORECASTING IN METEO-FRANCE (pdf) J.-P. Ceron DClim/DAS, Meteo-France |
| 14.55– 15.20 | EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL PREDICTION AT CMCC (pdf) S. Materia Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy |
| 15.20– 15.45 | LONG-RANGE FORECASTING METHODS DEVELOPED IN UKRANIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (pdf) V. Martazinova Hydrometeorological Research Institute |
| 15.45–16.15 | Coffee break |
| 16.15–16.40 | SEASONAL FORECASTING IN MGO (pdf) V. Mirvis, V. Meleshko, T. Lvova, V. Matyugin Main Geophysical Observatory |
| 16.40–17.05 | DEVELOPMENTS OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING IN ITALIAN AIR FORCE MET SERVICE(pdf) F. Maimone CNMCA - Italian Air Force Met Service |
| 17.05–17.30 | FORECAST SYSTEM IN RHMC – SLAV (pdf) D. Kiktev, M. Tolstyh, R. Zaripov, V. Kryjov, V. Khan, A. Muravyev, V. Tischenko, E. Kruglova, I. Kulikova Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation |
| 17.30–18.00 | Discussions |
| 18.00–20.00 | Reception |
| 30-th of OCTOBER - WEDNESDAY | |
| Third session. REVIEW OF CURRENT LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND WINTER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH EURASIAN TERRITORY Chair: Gerardus Verver Co-chair: Tatyana Stamatova | |
| 10.00 – 10.30 | ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN IN NH (pdf) J.-P. Ceron DClim/DAS, Meteo-France |
| 10.30 – 11.00 | THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION: A DOMINANT MODE OF THE BOREAL WINTER ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY (pdf) Vladimir Kryjov Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation |
| 11.00 – 11.30 | WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 GPC – EXETER (pdf) A. Brookshaw Met Office Hadley Centre |
| 11.30 – 12.00 | Coffee break |
| 12.00 – 12.15 | CLIMATE AND MACROCIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS OF ARMENIA (pdf) A.Gevorgyan Armhydromet |
| 12.15 – 12.30 | CLIMATE MONITORING AND OUTLOOK IN 2012 IN UZBEKISTAN (pdf) I.Zaitsceva Uzhydromet |
| 12.30 – 13.00 | WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 WITH CFSV2 AND NMME (pdf) H.Wang Climate Prediction Centre, NOAA |
| 13.00 – 13.30 | Discussions |
| 13.30 – 14.30 | Lunch |
| Chair: Filippo Maimone Victoriya Matveenko | |
| 14.30 – 15.00 | WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 GPC – TOKYO (pdf) S. Tanaka Tokyo Climate Center |
| 15.00 – 15.15 | WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014, CLIMATE ASPECTS, SKILL SCORE OF MONTHLY FORECASTS (pdf) N. Golenya Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center |
| 15.15– 15.30 | WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 FOR THE KAZAKHSTAN TERRITORY G. Akisheva Kazhydromet |
| 15.30– 16.00 | Coffee break |
| 16.00– 16.15 | CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS OF PAST WINTERS IN BELORUSSIA, CYCLONE HAVIER (pdf) V.Matveenko Hydrometeorological Centre Belarus |
| 16.15– 16.30 | CLIMATE TENDENCY DURING COLD SEASON IN MOLDOVA (pdf) T.Stomatova Hydrometeorological Centre of Moldova |
| COUNTRY CONTRIBUTIONS: | |
| 16.30–16.45 | Hydrometcenter of Tajikistan |
| 16.45–17.00 | Hydrometeorological Forecasting Bureau of Azerbaijan |
| 17.00–17.15 | Kyrgyzhydromet |
| 17.15–17.30 | Discussion |
| 31-th of OCTOBER - THURSDAY | |
| Fourth session. ADOPTION OF DRAFT CONSENSUS OUTLOOK Chair: Anca Brookshaw Co-chair: Vladimir Kryjov | |
| 10.00 – 10.30 | SEASONAL WINTER OUTLOOK FOR THE CIS TERRITORY (pdf) I. Kulikova, V. Tischenko Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation |
| 10.30 – 11.30 | DEVELOPMENT OF CONSENSUS STATEMENT OF WINTER FORECAST IN 2013-2014 |
| 11.30 – 12.00 | Coffee break |
| Fifth session. CLIMATE MONITORING Chair: Shotaro Tanaka Co-chair: Artur Gevorgyan | |
| 12.00 – 12.30 | CLIMATE MONITORING OVER CIS TERRITORY (pdf) M. Bardin, G. Gruza, E. Rankova Institute of Global Climate and Ecology |
| 12.30 – 13.30 | INFORMATION FOR RESEARCH AND CLIMATE MONITORING, CUSTOMER CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICE (pdf) O. Buligina RIHMI—WDC, Russia |
| 13.30 – 14.30 | Lunch |
| Sixth session. TRAINING | |
| 14.30 – 15.00 | VISUALISATIONS AND ANALYSIS OF SLAV AND CFS FORECASTING FIELDS USING “LONG RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL V. Tzepelev NWFD Department of Roshydromet |
| 15.00 – 15.30 | PRACTICAL TRAININGS ON USING OF “LONG-RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL |
| 15.30 – 16.00 | Coffee break |
| 16.00 – 17.00 | PRACTICAL TRAININGS ON USING OF “LONG-RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL |
| 17.00–17.30 | Discussion |
| 1-th of NOVEMBER - FRIDAY | |
| Seventh session. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION Chair: Hui Wang Co-chair: Nataliya Golenya | |
| 10.00 – 10.25 | AGROCLIMATE MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY OVER TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN XXI CENTURY (pdf) A. Kleschenko, V. Pavlova Russian Agrometeorological Research Institue |
| 10.25 – 10.50 | LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST OF SPRING FLOODING WITH ACCOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF METEOROLOGCIAL CONDITIONS FOR FORECAST PERIOD (pdf) A.Gelfan*, IY. Motovilov*, V. Khan** *- Institute of Water Problems, ** - Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation |
| 10.50 – 11.15 | USING THE CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR APPLICATIONS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES (pdf)B. Revich*, K. Rubinstein**, S. Emelina** *-Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, ** - Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation |
| 11.15 – 11.45 | Coffee break |
| 11.45 – 12.10 | USING CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR TECHNICAL SERVICES IN THE ECONOMY SECTORS (pdf) E. Akentieva, N. Kobysheva, A. Peters A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) |
| 12.10 – 12.35 | FORECASTING OF FIRE DANGER INDEX USING ENSEMBLE SEASONAL FORECASTS (pdf) V. Khan, P. Vasilev Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation |
| 12.35 – 13.00 | Discussion of next NEACOF |
| 13.00 – 13.30 | Drawing up conclusions. Closing of the NEACOF-5. |
| 13.30–14.30 | Lunch |
| ORGANIZING COMMITTEE OF NEACOF-5: | Chair: Dr. R. Vilfand; co-chair: Dr. D.Kiktev; Mr. M. Kovtunenko; Ms. A. Borzenkova; Mrs. M. Grinko; Dr. V. Khan; Dr. E. Kruglova; Dr. V. Kryjov; Dr. I. Kulikova; Dr. V. Tischenko; Mrs. D. Utkuzova; Ms. O. Volobueva |
| PROGRAM COMMITTEE OF NEACOF-5: | Chair:Dr. Kiktev; co-chair: Dr. R. Vilfand ; Ms. N. Bergi; Mr. S. Rosner; Dr. R.K. Kolli, Dr. V. Kryjov; Dr. V. Khan; Dr. V. Tzepelev |
