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NEACC North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum

Agenda of NEACOF-5

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THE FIFTH SESSION OF NORTH EURASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (NEACOF-5)
Moscow, October 29,2013 - November 1, 2013

29-th of OCTOBER - TUESDAY
OPENING OF NEACOF-5
9.30 – 10.00Registration of the forum participants
10.00 – 10.30Welcome address on behalf of Roshydromet
Welcome address by R.Vilfand (Director of Hydrometcenter of Russia)
First session. MECHANISMS AND PROCEDURES TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF CLIMATE SERVICES
Chair: Jean-Pierre Ceron
Co-chair: Jamilya Baidulloeva
10.30 – 10.50A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL MECHANISMS AND PROCEDURES TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF CLIMATE SERVICES (pdf)
N. Berghi
World Meteorological Organization
10.50 – 11.10DEVELOPING A GFCS SERVICE FOR IMPROVING REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS BASED ON EXPERIENCES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF WMO-RA VI RCC ON CLIMATE DATA (pdf)
G. Verver
Focal point WMO RAVI RCC on climate data, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
11.10 – 11.30

THE ROLE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES IN THE INCREASING OF THE EFFICIENT USE OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION(pdf)
S. Rosner
Division Regional Climate Monitoring, Coordinator WMO RA VI RCC-Network

11.30 – 11.40Group photo
11.40 – 12.00Coffee break
Second session. PROGRESS IN SEASONAL FORECASTING
Chair: Stefan Rosner
Co-chair: Irina Zaitsceva
12.00 – 12.25DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY AT NCEP CPC (pdf)
H. Wang
Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
12.25 – 12.50PROGRESS IN SEASONAL PREDICTION IN MET OFFICE (pdf)
A. Brookshaw
Met Office Hadley Centre
12.50 – 13.15TOKYO CLIMATE CENTRE’S ACTIVITY IN LONG-RANGE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT(pdf)
S. Tanaka
Tokyo Climate Center
13.15 – 13.30Discussions
13.30– 14.30Lunch
Chair: Natalia Berghi
Co-chair: Christian Viel
14.30– 14.55SEASONAL FORECASTING IN METEO-FRANCE (pdf)
J.-P. Ceron
DClim/DAS, Meteo-France
14.55– 15.20EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL PREDICTION AT CMCC (pdf)
S. Materia
Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy
15.20– 15.45LONG-RANGE FORECASTING METHODS DEVELOPED IN UKRANIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (pdf)
V. Martazinova
Hydrometeorological Research Institute
15.45–16.15Coffee break
16.15–16.40SEASONAL FORECASTING IN MGO (pdf)
V. Mirvis, V. Meleshko, T. Lvova, V. Matyugin
Main Geophysical Observatory
16.40–17.05DEVELOPMENTS OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING IN ITALIAN AIR FORCE MET SERVICE(pdf)
F. Maimone
CNMCA - Italian Air Force Met Service
17.05–17.30FORECAST SYSTEM IN RHMC – SLAV (pdf)
D. Kiktev, M. Tolstyh, R. Zaripov, V. Kryjov, V. Khan, A. Muravyev, V. Tischenko, E. Kruglova, I. Kulikova
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
17.30–18.00Discussions
18.00–20.00Reception
30-th of OCTOBER - WEDNESDAY
Third session. REVIEW OF CURRENT LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND WINTER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH EURASIAN TERRITORY
Chair: Gerardus Verver
Co-chair: Tatyana Stamatova
10.00 – 10.30ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN IN NH (pdf)
J.-P. Ceron
DClim/DAS, Meteo-France
10.30 – 11.00THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION: A DOMINANT MODE OF THE BOREAL WINTER ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY (pdf)
Vladimir Kryjov
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
11.00 – 11.30WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 GPC – EXETER (pdf)
A. Brookshaw
Met Office Hadley Centre
11.30 – 12.00Coffee break
12.00 – 12.15CLIMATE AND MACROCIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS OF ARMENIA (pdf)
A.Gevorgyan
Armhydromet
12.15 – 12.30CLIMATE MONITORING AND OUTLOOK IN 2012 IN UZBEKISTAN (pdf)
I.Zaitsceva
Uzhydromet
12.30 – 13.00WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 WITH CFSV2 AND NMME (pdf)
H.Wang
Climate Prediction Centre, NOAA
13.00 – 13.30Discussions
13.30 – 14.30Lunch
Chair: Filippo Maimone
Victoriya Matveenko
14.30 – 15.00WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 GPC – TOKYO (pdf)
S. Tanaka
Tokyo Climate Center
15.00 – 15.15WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014, CLIMATE ASPECTS, SKILL SCORE OF MONTHLY FORECASTS (pdf)
N. Golenya
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
15.15– 15.30WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013-2014 FOR THE KAZAKHSTAN TERRITORY
G. Akisheva
Kazhydromet
15.30– 16.00Coffee break
16.00– 16.15CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS OF PAST WINTERS IN BELORUSSIA, CYCLONE HAVIER (pdf)
V.Matveenko
Hydrometeorological Centre Belarus
16.15– 16.30CLIMATE TENDENCY DURING COLD SEASON IN MOLDOVA (pdf)
T.Stomatova
Hydrometeorological Centre of Moldova
 COUNTRY CONTRIBUTIONS:
16.30–16.45Hydrometcenter of Tajikistan
16.45–17.00Hydrometeorological Forecasting Bureau of Azerbaijan
17.00–17.15Kyrgyzhydromet
17.15–17.30Discussion
31-th of OCTOBER - THURSDAY
Fourth session. ADOPTION OF DRAFT CONSENSUS OUTLOOK
Chair: Anca Brookshaw
Co-chair: Vladimir Kryjov
10.00 – 10.30SEASONAL WINTER OUTLOOK FOR THE CIS TERRITORY (pdf)
I. Kulikova, V. Tischenko
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
10.30 – 11.30DEVELOPMENT OF CONSENSUS STATEMENT OF WINTER FORECAST IN 2013-2014
11.30 – 12.00Coffee break
Fifth session. CLIMATE MONITORING
Chair: Shotaro Tanaka
Co-chair: Artur Gevorgyan
12.00 – 12.30CLIMATE MONITORING OVER CIS TERRITORY (pdf)
M. Bardin, G. Gruza, E. Rankova
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology
12.30 – 13.30INFORMATION FOR RESEARCH AND CLIMATE MONITORING, CUSTOMER CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICE (pdf)
O. Buligina
RIHMI—WDC, Russia
13.30 – 14.30Lunch
Sixth session. TRAINING
14.30 – 15.00VISUALISATIONS AND ANALYSIS OF SLAV AND CFS FORECASTING FIELDS USING “LONG RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL
V. Tzepelev
NWFD Department of Roshydromet
15.00 – 15.30PRACTICAL TRAININGS ON USING OF “LONG-RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL
15.30 – 16.00Coffee break
16.00 – 17.00PRACTICAL TRAININGS ON USING OF “LONG-RANGE FORECASTER” TOOL
17.00–17.30Discussion
1-th of NOVEMBER - FRIDAY
Seventh session. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION
Chair: Hui Wang
Co-chair: Nataliya Golenya
10.00 – 10.25AGROCLIMATE MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY OVER TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN XXI CENTURY (pdf)
A. Kleschenko, V. Pavlova
Russian Agrometeorological Research Institue
10.25 – 10.50LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST OF SPRING FLOODING WITH ACCOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF METEOROLOGCIAL CONDITIONS FOR FORECAST PERIOD (pdf)
A.Gelfan*, IY. Motovilov*, V. Khan**
*- Institute of Water Problems, ** - Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
10.50 – 11.15USING THE CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR APPLICATIONS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES (pdf)B. Revich*, K. Rubinstein**, S. Emelina**
*-Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, ** - Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
11.15 – 11.45Coffee break
11.45 – 12.10USING CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR TECHNICAL SERVICES IN THE ECONOMY SECTORS (pdf)
E. Akentieva, N. Kobysheva, A. Peters
A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO)
12.10 – 12.35FORECASTING OF FIRE DANGER INDEX USING ENSEMBLE SEASONAL FORECASTS (pdf)
V. Khan, P. Vasilev
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation
12.35 – 13.00Discussion of next NEACOF
13.00 – 13.30Drawing up conclusions. Closing of the NEACOF-5.
13.30–14.30Lunch
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE OF NEACOF-5:Chair: Dr. R. Vilfand; co-chair: Dr. D.Kiktev; Mr. M. Kovtunenko; Ms. A. Borzenkova; Mrs. M. Grinko; Dr. V. Khan; Dr. E. Kruglova; Dr. V. Kryjov; Dr. I. Kulikova; Dr. V. Tischenko; Mrs. D. Utkuzova; Ms. O. Volobueva
PROGRAM COMMITTEE OF NEACOF-5:Chair:Dr. Kiktev; co-chair: Dr. R. Vilfand ; Ms. N. Bergi; Mr. S. Rosner; Dr. R.K. Kolli, Dr. V. Kryjov; Dr. V. Khan; Dr. V. Tzepelev